Recession coming in 2025 or 2026
Feb. 22nd, 2025 11:22 am![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
amalthiaI think a recession/depression may be coming sooner than my ironically projected 2029 time frame.
I say this because on Thursday my sister and I decided not to send two of her kids to Alaska this summer, like we planned this Christmas. She works for the Federal government and without slapdash firing of people all over the place, she doesn't know if she'll have a job this upcoming year.
If she and I are making this decision how many other millions of other federal employees are cutting back on spending? This has a ripple effect across millions of employees.
2 not purchased airplane tickets, no food purchased by the kids traveling in the airport, no gear purchased for hiking. I'm not going to be spending money taking the kids kayaking, the zoos, or buying fishing licenses in Alaska. Not to mention all the out eating money not spent. Kids are expensive to feed if you go out to eat with them! You don't want to know how much I spent last summer when my nephews visited, it was worth it! But that was money spent in Alaska and that kind of spending keeps the economy going and keeps people employed.
The United States tends to have recessions when there are asset inflation bubbles, or there economic uncertainty, and many people all at once rationally decide to save their money instead of spend it on non-necessities. Let's face it Trump and Musk in office are creating a ton of uncertainty all across the board!
I say this because on Thursday my sister and I decided not to send two of her kids to Alaska this summer, like we planned this Christmas. She works for the Federal government and without slapdash firing of people all over the place, she doesn't know if she'll have a job this upcoming year.
If she and I are making this decision how many other millions of other federal employees are cutting back on spending? This has a ripple effect across millions of employees.
2 not purchased airplane tickets, no food purchased by the kids traveling in the airport, no gear purchased for hiking. I'm not going to be spending money taking the kids kayaking, the zoos, or buying fishing licenses in Alaska. Not to mention all the out eating money not spent. Kids are expensive to feed if you go out to eat with them! You don't want to know how much I spent last summer when my nephews visited, it was worth it! But that was money spent in Alaska and that kind of spending keeps the economy going and keeps people employed.
The United States tends to have recessions when there are asset inflation bubbles, or there economic uncertainty, and many people all at once rationally decide to save their money instead of spend it on non-necessities. Let's face it Trump and Musk in office are creating a ton of uncertainty all across the board!
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Date: 2025-02-23 12:11 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2025-02-23 12:41 am (UTC)I hope your sister can keep her job for as long as she wants to have it.
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Date: 2025-02-23 03:20 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2025-02-25 06:58 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2025-02-23 03:59 am (UTC)Many local economies do not have jobs for those workers, some of whom have very specialized career fields.
And then there are all fallout job losses that are going to happen -- all the restaurants that don't get patronized, trips that don't get taken.
In some small rural towns, the NPS/BLM are major employers. That lack of income is going to hurt.
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Date: 2025-02-25 07:02 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2025-02-23 01:52 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2025-02-23 04:38 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2025-02-23 06:27 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2025-02-25 07:03 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2025-02-25 01:50 am (UTC)Ugh. I hate this timeline.
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Date: 2025-02-25 07:04 am (UTC)